Both pricing anchors are customers, and the revenue cannot be checked publicly. On Sep 8 Mistral announced a €3B Series D, post-money from €11.7B to over €21B, 1.8x. Samsung led and the next day said it plans to deploy the models in phases into chip production; ASML, a named customer, solely led the prior round. $1B ARR by year end is only a CFO target, per Reuters.
Investors: a customer-led price may carry a strategic premium, so calibrate it; the first checkable number is audited 2025 revenue.
Founders: leaderboards cannot see on-prem revenue, so raise with audited revenue and renewal rates.
Falsifier: within 12 months from 2026-09-09, audited 2025 revenue of Mistral AI SAS of €250M or more marks this wrong and below €150M verifies it, per French registry accounts or official disclosure; a round not led by a customer or government party, or a secondary trade, at €21B or more also marks it wrong.
Ledger update (Sep 25): no progress.
Disclosure: written with Claude tools, and Anthropic competes with Mistral; FutureX is a Mistral AI shareholder, details go only to qualified investors, written the day after the holding was marked up.
This diary does not constitute promotion of, or an offer to subscribe for, any fund product.