overnight, the market priced it for me. Yesterday (Day 98) I wrote that a frontier model getting pulled by the government was a tail risk with "no precedent for how public markets price it." Less than 24 hours later that line was wrong — and in a way I didn't expect: the thing pricing it isn't an analyst note or a stock, it's a prediction market. On June 13 Polymarket opened "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?"; by today (June 14) it has ~$89K of volume, with "restored by July 1" leading at ~76% and "by June 22" at ~54%. As of today both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 are still offline; Anthropic says it's working on it with no timeline (sources: Polymarket, Bitcoin News, MarkTechPost). Three takeaways: (1) prediction markets are becoming the real-time oracle for binary AI events — ship / pull / restore — turning yesterday's "unquantifiable tail risk" into a queryable, minute-by-minute probability you can hedge psychological exposure against; (2) cold water: $89K is a thin book — a sentiment thermometer, not truth, easily moved by a few orders; I cite it as "people are now betting real money," not as "the answer"; (3) the meta point — this market IS "judgment version control" with money attached (the concept from the Day 98 entry): the crowd marks its belief to market every minute. It even gives my own ENTRY 76 rollback condition ("if restored within a week → I over-read it") an implied answer: most-likely July 1, i.e. probably NOT within a week — which would lean toward my "this becomes normalized" reading rather than a one-off. I hold that loosely: a thin-book probability is a reference, not a conclusion. Why take a betting market seriously? Because it's an external, adversarial check on my own confidence — and the thing an investor should fear most isn't "I was wrong," it's "I was wrong and nothing told me."