The Betting Market Nailed the Date; I Got the Wall's Material Half Wrong — Commerce lifted export controls June 30; Anthropic restored Fable 5 globally July 1 (18 days after the June 12 shutdown). Conditions: from July 8 consumer full access requires Persona ID verification (government ID + live selfie); Pro/Max capped at 50% weekly limits through July 7; API customers exempt. Three ledger settlements: (1) ✓ prediction markets nailed "restored before July 1" almost to the day (ENTRY 77/80) — "the most honest ruler is the betting market" verified; regulatory takedown risk completed its first full cycle (occur → price → resolve), turning from black swan into a priceable risk class with an 18-day anchor; (2) half ✓ half ✗ on the passport wall (ENTRY 85) — the verification infrastructure is real and ships July 8 (✓), but restoration was global, not US-only: the wall's material is identity, not nationality — at least in v1 (publicly corrected); (3) new call: the API exemption is the most informative detail — regulators fear anonymous individual misuse, not enterprise integration; toB/API becomes the "low regulatory-friction channel," so integrating frontier models via API now carries more compliance certainty than consumer subscriptions — the integration path itself is a compliance asset. Rollback: if verification tightens by nationality after July 8, the identity wall upgrades back to a nationality wall.