As of 9/25 the channels show no impact, and the reading runs against the diary's original call. All six channels show zero delistings and zero KYC; the 6 labs named in the advisory averaged 68.0% of tokens and 19.6% of spend on Vercel's gateway over 30 days, above the baselines of 60.1% and 15.9% (self-computed by the author from Vercel's official export).
Judgment
The mainstream reads it as Chinese labs caught in the act. The diary says the accusations cannot cut off training: weights are already open, and Anthropic itself says fewer exchanges are needed than were harvested. What can be cut is the channels in US hands. All interaction counts are Anthropic's internal logs, unaudited, and the advisory carries no penalties.
Facts
Anthropic's 2026-09-10 report claims Alibaba ran over 151 million interactions in three months; internal logs, unaudited. NSA/CISA/FBI advisory AA26-251A (2026-09-08) named 6 labs, no penalties. Amazon put Moonshot's Kimi K3 on Bedrock on 9/18. MiniMax H1 2026 revenue was $116.6 million, 60.8% from outside mainland China (HKEX filing); Moonshot and DeepSeek have no official figures.
What to do
For founders: if a Chinese model is your backend, write into contracts whose model answers and where data goes; if you distilled from Claude, switch to an open-weight teacher. For investors: compute overseas revenue share first; MiniMax is 60.8% outside the mainland, and Moonshot has not disclosed, so ask; judge channel action by official catalog changes.
Falsifier (verbatim from the diary footnote)
(1) 'The bill lands first on overseas distribution': within 6 months from 2026-09-14 (through 2027-03-14), if any of Vercel, OpenRouter, AWS Bedrock, Azure AI Foundry, Google Vertex or Hugging Face (a FutureX holding, not exempt for that reason), by official announcement or catalog change, delists all currently sold models of any one of the 6 advisory-named labs, stops new customers, or singles them out for identity verification, geographic or approval restrictions (routine version retirement does not count), or if the 6 labs' 30-day average token share on Vercel's gateway falls below 30% (now 60.1%, a halving), mark verified; if there is no channel action and that token average is still no lower than 50% (lowest day 49.1% for 8/15 to 9/13), mark ✗; in between, mark ⏳ and publish the reading. Adjudication sources: each channel's official model catalog and announcements, and Vercel's official export (recomputed on this entry's basis via scripts/vercel-lab-share.py, details public).
Ledger status：⏳ 进行中，至 2027-03-14 裁定。2026-09-25 对账读数与判断方向相反，「无渠道动作且 token 均值 ≥50%」的 ✗ 条件目前成立中。另据 The Information 9/22（转述，网信办官网无相关通告）：网信办约谈 DeepSeek 与月之暗面，无处罚。
Disclosure: This diary is written and verified with Claude; discount any judgment about Anthropic, favourable or not; FutureX Capital has fully exited Meituan (confirmed by the author on Oct 10, 2026), so it no longer has an indirect interest in Moonshot AI through Meituan; FutureX Capital holds Hugging Face; discount in both directions; The author is a Vercel customer; Vercel's leaderboard 'spend' is a list-price-weighted estimate, not billing.