Yes, schedule it this quarter: a dual-supplier abstraction layer, swappable weights, and a fallback path for critical capabilities. A cutoff has already happened once: a US Commerce Department letter on 6/12 put Anthropic's Fable 5 under control, and it returned globally on 7/1, a full 18 days offline.
The mainstream view treats a cutoff as a technical risk. The diary books it as administrative-discretion risk: your access sits in another country's hands and one letter can end it. Current status first: ENTRY 85's "tiered by nationality" call was corrected by ENTRY 91 as only half right. The wall is built on identity, and the restoration was global.
The US Commerce Department's 6/12 letter cited EAR §744.22(b) and required export licenses for Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos. Commerce lifted the export control on 6/30 and Fable 5 returned globally on 7/1, a full 18 days offline; from 7/8 the full-capability consumer version requires identity verification, while API users are exempt. Caveat: the statutory export license fell case by case on Anthropic alone; OpenAI and Google cooperated voluntarily.
For founders: schedule the dual-supplier abstraction layer and fallback path this quarter, keep core business on the API side, and leave a slot for identity verification in consumer products. For investors: in diligence, ask how long it takes to switch away if the main model is cut off, and discount as a single point of failure if there is no answer; use 18 days as the pricing anchor instead of cutting valuation as if the damage were permanent.