SpaceX breaking issue means the AI exit channel is a crack, not an open door; the diary's 6/13 call that 'a +19% first day proves the exit channel is open' has been marked ✗ and publicly corrected. SPCX fell through its $135 offer price on 7/15 and closed 7/24 16% below the offer price and 46% below its peak.
The consensus grades the exit channel by first-day pop. After owning the error, the diary switched to the full cycle: lock-up expiry plus earnings delivery, 90 days at minimum. ENTRY 113 adds the other side: the share price is for retail, founders watch the cash that landed, and breaking issue and locked-in funding hold at the same time.
SPCX broke below its offer price on 7/15 and closed 7/24 at 16% below the offer and 46% below the peak (ENTRY 111; sources Bloomberg, CNBC). SpaceX went from a $135 offer price to about $115, yet had raised about $85.7 billion on IPO day (ENTRY 113; source SpaceX S-1). Tesla's high-priced offerings locked the premium into three gigafactories; its stock fell about 75% in 2022 and the capacity remained (source Tesla 10-Q).
For investors: do not score the exit channel on first-day gains; use the full cycle of lock-up expiry plus earnings delivery, 90 days at minimum, and until then do not rush to remove the liquidity discount in private valuations. For founders: while the window is open, convert narrative premium into cash, capacity and cash-cow businesses, instead of waiting for a 'reasonable' valuation to raise.