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When will OpenAI IPO, and why did it slip to 2027?

Asked by:投资人·二级·家办 · Judged · 张倩 Cynthia Zhang · FutureX Capital

The diary gives no listing date for OpenAI; the 2027 slip appears only as one line in the judgment ledger, that OpenAI leans toward pushing to 2027, which is not an official announcement. What pushes it toward an IPO is a clogging employee-liquidity channel and the compute bill: about $600 billion of compute commitments through 2030, against 2025 revenue of about $13.1 billion and an operating loss of about $20.9 billion.

Judgment

The consensus asks who lists first and when. The diary calls that a false question: the IPO is the last pressure valve not yet opened, and filing is only getting in line. Litigation also weighs on pricing: Apple sued just as OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing was imminent, so the S-1 must carry risk disclosure and the valuation takes a discount.

Facts

OpenAI's compute commitments through 2030 are about $600 billion, beyond what private rounds can feed; 2025 revenue was about $13.1 billion and the operating loss about $20.9 billion, from leaked audited figures verified by the FT. Both companies filed confidential S-1s and neither has listed. Apple sued OpenAI, io and two former employees on 7/10, a one-sided allegation with no ruling yet; at that time the S-1 was imminent rather than public, with a listing in September at the earliest. Precedent: Waymo sued Uber and settled for about $245M in equity.

What to do

For founders: if employees cannot sell in secondaries, that is a retention risk, so design liquidity that does not depend on an IPO now. For investors: model exits as 'in the queue' and watch the 90 days after the first listing; when quoting SPVs on OpenAI secondaries, build in an IP-litigation discount.

Falsifier (verbatim from the diary footnote)

If OpenAI lists on schedule in September with no pricing discount, the public market does not take IP litigation seriously and this entry's judgment is downgraded.
Ledger status:⏳ 进行中(所引两篇在判断台账均为进行中,九月证伪口台账尚未裁定);验收口径:挂牌并扛住完整周期(解禁+盈利兑现,起步 90 天)不破发才算数
Disclosure: This diary is written and verified with Claude; discount any judgment about Anthropic, favourable or not; FutureX Capital does not, on publicly available information, hold the companies discussed here.
Source entries:ENTRY 115 · 「谁先上市」是个伪问题:Anthropic 和 OpenAI 同周递表却都在等——把它们推向 IPO 的不是实力,是快堵死的兑现通道和算力军备的钱袋子 · ENTRY 100 · 苹果起诉 OpenAI 偷硬件机密——这份诉状不是写给法官看的,是写给承销商看的
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Topic pages:OpenAI · GPT · AI IPOs & exits · Anthropic · Claude