The diary gives no listing date for OpenAI; the 2027 slip appears only as one line in the judgment ledger, that OpenAI leans toward pushing to 2027, which is not an official announcement. What pushes it toward an IPO is a clogging employee-liquidity channel and the compute bill: about $600 billion of compute commitments through 2030, against 2025 revenue of about $13.1 billion and an operating loss of about $20.9 billion.
The consensus asks who lists first and when. The diary calls that a false question: the IPO is the last pressure valve not yet opened, and filing is only getting in line. Litigation also weighs on pricing: Apple sued just as OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing was imminent, so the S-1 must carry risk disclosure and the valuation takes a discount.
OpenAI's compute commitments through 2030 are about $600 billion, beyond what private rounds can feed; 2025 revenue was about $13.1 billion and the operating loss about $20.9 billion, from leaked audited figures verified by the FT. Both companies filed confidential S-1s and neither has listed. Apple sued OpenAI, io and two former employees on 7/10, a one-sided allegation with no ruling yet; at that time the S-1 was imminent rather than public, with a listing in September at the earliest. Precedent: Waymo sued Uber and settled for about $245M in equity.
For founders: if employees cannot sell in secondaries, that is a retention risk, so design liquidity that does not depend on an IPO now. For investors: model exits as 'in the queue' and watch the 90 days after the first listing; when quoting SPVs on OpenAI secondaries, build in an IP-litigation discount.