Do not buy beta at the consensus price while still paying VC fees; megarounds need their own fee schedule. Global venture funding in the first half was $510 billion; OpenAI plus Anthropic took $217 billion, 43% of it (committed basis, single source), and with neither listed so far their DPI contribution is zero.
The mainstream answer is 'don't invest in consensus'. The diary calls that line too cheap; the hard part is not buying beta at the consensus price while still paying VC fees. Wellington says mega AI exposure may deliver only beta-like returns: you pay active-management fees and buy an index.
Crunchbase (7/2): $510 billion of global venture funding in the first half; OpenAI plus Anthropic $217 billion, 43%, on a committed basis with $35 billion of it contingent, single source. PitchBook-NVCA: 2021-vintage US VC funds average 0.05x five-year DPI while one-year IRR is 17.1%. The two companies filed confidential S-1s a week apart and neither has listed; OpenAI's compute commitments through 2030 are about $600 billion.
For founders: 43% is two companies' fundraising, so do not read it as your market's temperature; design an employee liquidity plan that does not depend on an IPO now. For investors: give megarounds their own fee schedule; model exits on private holdings as 'in the queue', and watch the 90 days after the first listing.