In LP cash forecasts, SpaceX's $60B purchase of Cursor counts as zero before mid-February 2027 (an inference). About $9.7B is employee options and RSUs; preferred and common holders got 389.3M unregistered SPCX shares worth about $50.1B at the exchange price (author's calculation), lock-up undisclosed. At the Oct 2 close that is about $61.9B, about 24% above the exchange price, but no resale registration existed by Oct 2; Rule 144 requires six months of holding from Aug 14 before public sale, behind at least four IPO lock-up releases. One registered fund marked Cursor on Jun 30, before closing, at about 77% of the merger consideration (author's calculation).
Investors: split stock exits into cash, tradable and restricted; count restricted in TVPI only, and schedule cash by release date.
Founders: selling for a newly listed acquirer's stock, require a resale registration filed by a set date after closing, or take part cash.
Falsifier: an effective resale registration for the Cursor-derived SPCX, or a sale of those shares by any fund that held Cursor, dated before Feb 14, 2027 and disclosed in filings by the March 2027 check, makes the call wrong (early lock-up release, short sales and hedges don't count); neither by then verifies it. Holders' marks on these shares are recorded, not judged.
Disclosure: written with Claude; Cursor is an Anthropic customer and competitor, xAI competes with Anthropic, and Anthropic buys compute from SpaceX; FutureX holds no direct or indirect stake in Cursor or SpaceX (confirmed by the author from FutureX's records).
This diary does not constitute promotion of, or an offer to subscribe for, any fund product.