Lots of tokens, little money, but the wallet has started to move. On Vercel's gateway, Chinese models ran 55% of tokens on an August daily average for about one-seventh of the spend; the 30-day spend average for 8/26 to 9/24 was 19.8%. Both are the author's self-computed broad-China figures; Vercel does not break out a China share.
The mainstream 'Silicon Valley is swapping its base model' story is about token volume; the diary only counts spend share. Vercel's monthly index never breaks out a China-origin share, so every China figure is self-computed by the author from lab rows, with judgment calls in country classification. ENTRY 121's original call has been downgraded per its pre-registered terms.
Vercel AI Gateway index for June (7/13): open-weight models 29% of tokens, under 4% of spend; Anthropic 32% of tokens, 61% of spend. Vercel index for August (9/17): open-weight 56% of tokens, 14% of spend; Anthropic 64% of spend. Author's self-computed broad-China basis: 12.1% of spend on 8/23; across 12 labs, 30-day spend average for 8/26 to 9/24 of 19.8%, lowest day 11.1%.
For founders: on the cheap layer, charge by outcome or by seat, and do not build a three-year revenue model on wallet share. For investors: when a deck gives only token share, ask for spend share on the spot; the 30% upgrade line has not been reached, so do not price in 'the money is migrating'.