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How should I present ARR and daily token volume in my deck so investors don't discount them?

Asked by:创始人·AI 创业 CEO(A/B 轮) · Judged · 张倩 Cynthia Zhang · FutureX Capital

State which ARR definition you use and follow it with net retention and gross margin; for daily tokens, say first whether your own calls are included. On the same coverage measure, Volcano MaaS has realized about 1% against a 7.5% target, versus 77% for AWS (numerator from leaked figures).

Judgment

Most decks treat absolute ARR and total token volume as the scorecard. The diary holds that the absolute number is no longer the signal and the definition comes first: the three kinds of ARR are not comparable, run-rate is the most fragile, and tokens you consume yourself generate only cost, no revenue.

Facts

Sierra took 7 quarters to reach its first $100M ARR and only 2 for the second; Anthropic went from a $30B run-rate to $47B in under two months (ENTRY 98, sources: TechCrunch and company announcements). Volcano MaaS coverage is about 1% realized against a 7.5% target, Volcano as a whole 10-12%, AWS 77%, whose numerator comes from leaked figures (ENTRY 124). At ByteDance's 8/6 all-hands the line was that burning cash cannot be the norm.

What to do

For founders: state your ARR definition, attach net retention and gross margin, and do not report on a run-rate basis; for daily tokens, say first whether your own calls are included. For investors: regress MaaS revenue forecasts on the 1% realized coverage, not the 7.5% target.

Falsifier (verbatim from the diary footnote)

If, within 12 months, confirmed AI infrastructure debt or long-term lease/hosting commitments appear (including off-balance-sheet, per the ENTRY 122 definition), the claim of high coverage and low external dependence is downgraded; only when ByteDance or Volcano first publicly discloses cloud/MaaS segment revenue (whatever the size) can the claim that it has not passed the scale test be checked for the first time.
Ledger status:ENTRY 124 在判断台账为 ⏳ 进行中;ENTRY 98 未入台账。证伪口出自 ENTRY 124,ENTRY 98 尾注无证伪口。
Disclosure: This diary is written and verified with Claude; discount any judgment about Anthropic, favourable or not; FutureX Capital invested in ByteDance from its Series A through E and holds an interest; discount in both directions.
Source entries:ENTRY 98 · 这批 AI 公司稀奇的不是增长快,是增速在加速——增长的二阶导为正;但"ARR"三个字母底下,藏着三个完全不同的东西 · ENTRY 124 · 字节用自己赚的钱付 AI capex——但它对外计价那条线的覆盖率,是 AWS 的零头
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Topic pages:ByteDance · Doubao · Seed · Anthropic · Claude