ByteDance can pay for its AI capex out of its own earnings, but externally priced Volcano Engine MaaS is not yet a business. On one coverage-ratio basis, Volcano MaaS has realized about 1% against a 7.5% target, versus AWS at 77%. Paid Doubao is a rough RMB 240 million to 1.8 billion annualized at 1% paid conversion, a back-of-envelope figure, not company-disclosed.
The mainstream view prices ByteDance's AI on absolute capex and daily token volume. The diary ranks by capex divided by operating cash flow and counts only externally priced revenue. Tokens consumed in-house generate cost, not revenue, so the valuation story for China MaaS rests on a line that has not yet proven itself.
Capex: the circulated claim of capex raised to RMB 200 billion with RMB 85 billion for chips mixes two budgets; the 85 billion belongs to an earlier FT-reported plan, and the 200 billion is an unconfirmed SCMP exclusive. Volcano MaaS: realized coverage about 1%, target 7.5%, Volcano overall 10-12%; the numerator of AWS's 77% is a leaked group-wide figure (ENTRY 124, 2026-08-14). Doubao: 350 million MAU, three subscription tiers at RMB 68-500 per month, MAU fell 6 million after the announcement, a short-term data point (ENTRY 87, 2026-06-25).
For founders: do not write daily token volume in the deck before stating whether it includes in-house calls. For investors: regress MaaS revenue forecasts on the 1% realized coverage, not the 7.5% target; for Doubao watch paid conversion, since falling MAU is not the bearish signal, a flat conversion rate is.