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How should I read AI model companies' gross margins? Are DeepSeek's and MiniMax's numbers credible?

Asked by:投资人·VC·二级 · Judged · 张倩 Cynthia Zhang · FutureX Capital

Neither company's figure is audited, and for companies that buy compute a gross margin has to be read together with its accounting scope. DeepSeek, per The Information (single source, unconfirmed by the company, cost basis undisclosed), shows a 44.6% gross margin, which implies RMB 260 million of cost of revenue, while the same report cites RMB 11 billion of compute spending, a 42x gap.

Judgment

The consensus lines gross margins up side by side as comparable. The diary separates two kinds of company: a compute seller's gross margin is an accounting fact, a compute buyer's is a word problem. First ask whose books the compute spending sits on; if the numbers do not reconcile, it is not one set of books.

Facts

Nvidia FY2027 Q2 results (8/26, unaudited): 75.0% gross margin; MiniMax interim results announcement (8/26, unaudited): 17.9%, a 57 percentage-point gap; the two statements are not comparable, read direction only. DeepSeek per The Information (8/26, single source, unconfirmed by the company): RMB 475 million revenue over the first seven months at a 44.6% gross margin, implying RMB 260 million cost of revenue, while the same piece cites RMB 11 billion of compute spending (leases and purchases mixed).

What to do

For founders: do not raise on a gross margin that excludes training amortization; one diligence question breaks it. For investors: ask for the scope with the margin (compute rented or bought, in or out of cost of revenue, training amortization in or out); regress MaaS revenue forecasts on the 1% realized coverage, not the 7.5% target.

Falsifier (verbatim from the diary footnote)

If the audited figures in DeepSeek's STAR Market prospectus roughly match these two gross margins, this entry is void; the prospectus's basis governs, and I do not self-compute.
Ledger status:⏳ 进行中(ENTRY 129,判断台账 2026-08-28 卡片)。证伪口未设截止日,裁定源为 DeepSeek 科创板招股书的审计数。
Disclosure: This diary is written and verified with Claude; discount any judgment about Anthropic, favourable or not; FutureX Capital invested in ByteDance from its Series A through E and holds an interest; discount in both directions.
Source entries:ENTRY 129 · 「算力就是收入」只在卖卡的那张表上成立 · ENTRY 124 · 字节用自己赚的钱付 AI capex——但它对外计价那条线的覆盖率,是 AWS 的零头
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Topic pages:DeepSeek · 深度求索 · MiniMax · NVIDIA · ByteDance · Doubao · Seed