Treat the warrant as the vendor's customer-acquisition cost: deduct it from the contract value before applying a multiple. Akamai's 9/24 announcement: Anthropic commits to pay $11.6 billion over seven years for CPU compute, and Akamai issues warrants for up to about 5% of its shares (press-release basis) at a $111.33 strike.
Judgment
The consensus reads the $11.6 billion as revenue visibility for Akamai. The diary reads it as a vendor buying a customer with its own equity: strip the equity given away out of the contract value, and on Anthropic's side book the seven-year commitment as quasi-debt inside EV, a fixed seven-year outlay set against a Sol list price that reportedly halved in a single week.
Facts
Akamai 8-K (2026-09-24): Anthropic commits about $11.6 billion over seven years; on the press-release basis the warrants equal about 5% of shares outstanding at a $111.33 strike, about 2% vesting with existing commitments and about 1% per additional $3 billion of contract value. AMD 8-K (2025-10-06): warrants to OpenAI for up to 160 million shares at a $0.01 strike. As reported by VentureBeat (9/22), GPT-6 Sol's list price halved.
What to do
For investors: on any large compute deal, open the 8-K and look for warrants first; take the dilution out of the contract value before computing multiples, and book the model company's multi-year commitment as quasi-debt in EV. For founders: if you sell compute, count any equity the customer asks for as acquisition cost; if you buy compute, ask for warrants or a price reset before signing a multi-year commitment.
Falsifier (verbatim from the diary footnote)
The judgment here is that vendor-to-customer equity will become a standard term in compute procurement. Over the 12 months from 2026-09-25 (through 2027-09-25), count newly signed compute supply contracts of at least $5 billion each between listed compute, chip, cloud or data-center vendors and frontier model companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, Meta, Mistral and China's leading labs), disclosed via the vendor's 8-K, an HKEX announcement or an official press release, excluding the Akamai–Anthropic and AMD–OpenAI deals: 3 or more containing warrants, equity or convertible instruments issued to the customer counts as verified; 0 counts as ✗; 1–2 counts as ⏳ with the list published. Scope: the warrant must appear in the vendor's 8-K Item 1.01/3.02 or equivalent regulatory filing text, media reports do not count; vendor investment into a customer (such as Nvidia into OpenAI, ENTRY 126) runs the other way and is excluded. Adjudication sources: SEC EDGAR, HKEXnews, vendor press releases, listed deal by deal. Consequence: ✗ marks this judgment ✗ in the ledger and annotates llms.txt; verified writes 'contract value net of warrants' into this site's compute valuation method and back-annotates ENTRY 122, 126 and 129.
Disclosure: This diary is written and verified with Claude; discount any judgment about Anthropic, favourable or not; On publicly available information FutureX does not hold Nscale, CoreWeave, Nebius, NVIDIA or Microsoft; FutureX Capital holds Mistral AI; discount in both directions.